FEATURE
TOBACCO & RYO
17 OCTOBER 2025 ASIAN TRADER 61
ith the Tobacco and
Vapes Bill due to
move to the commit
tee stage in the House of Lords
on October 27, we have to ask the
question of what is in store for the
sector as smoking is made
progressively more expensive
and problematic by Parliament. It
is a process that has been ongoing
for decades, beneath the banner
of public health, and with the
Exchequer carrying it all the way
because of juicy tax revenues.
Today, it appears the govern
ment has run out of road. The
taxation on tobacco is now
incredibly high – and also
furiously regressive because it is
levied on a poorer section of the
population, to which a dispropor
tionate number of smokers
belong. In fact, excise duty is so
high that the black market for
tobacco is metastasizing and
threatening to overtake the
legitimate market, bringing with
it corruption, violence, and a
gang/mafia network that
launders its profits throughout
the economy, thus corrupting it,
too.
All that is left is for the
government to ban tobacco,
which it promises to do by
“smokefree 2030”, when it plans
that the remaining smokers will
represent below five per cent of
the population.
Higher prices, more restrictive
marketing rules, the generational
ban and so on, are supposed to
help achieve this, with a following
wind from vape.
Yet tobacco lobbyist Forest
claims that only two in five adults
think the generational ban is
important, saying that in a recent
poll, the Tobacco and Vapes Bill,
which introduces it, was rated
ninth out of ten government bills
that are currently progressing
through parliament.
It says its data shows other
concerns are far more relevant to
the public – naturally, you might
say, because the vast majority are
now non-smokers (only about 12
per cent of UK adults still smoke)
The Crime and Policing Bill
came top with 71 per cent,
followed by the Border Security,
Asylum and Immigration Bill (69
per cent), and the Children’s
Wellbeing and Schools Bill (68 per
cent).
“Contrary to what the
stop-smoking brigade would
have us believe, further
anti-smoking measures are
not on most people’s wish
list,” said Forest director
Simon Clark. “If ministers
had any respect for ordinary
people, they would put their
ideological hatred of tobacco
to one side and focus on the
issues that really matter to
voters.”
But how “sticky” actually
is smoking? Six million
people remains a sizeable
addressable market for tobacco,
and a disproportionate amount of
them will purchase their supplies
through the convenience
channel. The category remains
important to retailers – and to
smokers, who although are now a
small minority, still carry political
clout, especially as many vote
Labour.
We recently reported on how
the generational smoking ban
threatens Labour’s grip on
Scotland, where one in five say
that they are less likely to vote
Labour if the generational
smoking ban goes ahead,
compared with only one in 11 who
are attracted by the policy.
The equivalent figures for the
UK as a whole are 14 per cent less
likely to vote Labour and just 10
per cent more likely (suggesting
that the ban goes down particu
larly badly with Scottish voters).
Depending on how dire the polls
are looking nearer the general
election, there might just be a
reprieve ...
Whatever the situation,
tobacco remains an important
category for the independent
retailer, and contrary to what
media and government might say,
or wish, it is not going away any
time soon.
Carrying on smoking
Despite the perils of legislation
and price increases, smoking
continues to be a significant
market and a key source of
revenue for retailers.
“According to the ACS 2024
Local Shop Report, 20.1 per cent
of convenience retailers’ category
sales come from tobacco,
e-cigarettes and vaping products,”
PMI’s Director of Commercial
Operations at PMI UK&I, Paul
Dufourne.
Andrew Malm, UK Market
Manager at Imperial Brands,
points out that smokers are
still buying, but are more
often seeking out “value”
brands, a trend that has been
evident for more than several
years now.
“The UK tobacco category
is estimated at more than
£22bn each year,” he says.
“However, continued
pressures on the cost of living,
especially in the light of
predictions around tax rises in
Lighting up the category
Tobacco products and
accessories remain an
important source of
category revenue for
indies, and despite
government plans, the
situation is unlikely to
go change any time soon